T-minus four days til the election. Its on everybody's mind here and Beirut is buzzing with questions. Who will win? Who do you want to win? March 8 or March 14? What will Hizballah do? Do you think there will be trouble? What will you do if there is trouble?
I'll probably just stay right here in my apartment. This part of town has fared well in past wars and in the event of trouble, I could probably still make it to the market and the bar. As long as I can scurry over to Captain's Cabin, I am sure it will be open. Also, I heard a rumor that if the US embassy evacuates you, they then send you a bill for about ten grand for the service. Unacceptable.
But I don't think there is gonna be trouble. Either Hizballah is gonna pick up enough seats in parliament for a majority, or they won't. Unless there is some underhandedness going on, people will likely respect the outcome. On the other hand, you never know what lurks in the hearts of men, and that goes double for this place.
--------------
Here is the backgrounder. On Valentines Day 2005, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 22 of his body guards were killed in an explosion in downtown Beirut. Everyone blamed Syria. Three weeks later, Hizballah called for a pro-Syrian demonstration and hundreds of thousands of people turned out in support. The very next week, on March 14th, over a million pro-Hariri/anti-Syria supporters took to the streets and demanded that Syria remove all the troops it was keeping in Lebanon.
As I have written before, Syria views Lebanon as part of its rightful territory. After Syria helped end the civil war in Lebanon, they left about 15,000 troops behind. This was good for Hizballah, as it allowed them to get its weapons and money from Iran unfettered (Syria lies between Lebanon and Iran). But for the rest of the Lebanon, it just sucked being occupied by the Syrians. And it sucked even more when they allegedly exploded their former Prime Minister. Hariri was leading the reconstruction of Lebanon after the civil war and he was widely respected in many circles, not just among the Sunni.
So Hariri was killed on Valentine's Day and people in Lebanon were pissed at Syria . Hizballah liked Syria, so they had a rally in their support on March 8 . A week later, the people who were pissed at Syria had their own rally on March 14. This is where the coalition names come from. March 14 coalition is made up of Sunnis and Christians, and March 8 is made up of Shia.
When people talk about Hizballah "winning", they are talking about the group picking up a few seats in parliament, which would give it a majority. It doesn't seem like much, but the group hasn't been in politics all that long. Historically, the Shia have occupied the lowest rungs of the socio-economic ladder, so the fact that their party has come so far in such a short time-they participated in their first election in 1994- is remarkable.
But not everyone is happy about it. In the 1980's Hizballah allegedly bombed the US embassy and the Marine barracks here in Beirut. Young men who knew and served with the Marines that were killed, if they are still in the service, are all colonels and generals by now. Although the Hizballah has changed significantly since that time in my opinion, the issue is still prickly in Washington.
Also, Israel hates Hizballah after Hizballah helped expel them from Lebanon in 2ooo and 2006. And just as Syria views Lebanon as part of its territory, Israel views part of southern Lebanon as Greater Israel. Israel has plans for Lebanon and Hizballah is the only thing keeping them out, as the Lebanese Army is comically inept*. So the prospect of a Hizballah-led government in Lebanon doesn't sit too well.
*In 2008, the Lebanese Armed Forces (aptly acronymed LAF) tried to dismantle Hizballah's sophisticated communications network. In one day, Hizballah stormed Beirut, took over the city, and disarmed the LAF. Hizballah gave Beirut back once the LAF promised not to try anything like that again.
Before, when Israel would clash with Hizballah, the damage would be limited to Hizballah controlled areas like Southern Lebanon and South Beirut, but if Hizballah was the government, it's conceivable that Israel could be bombing additional areas, the theory being that if Hizballah leads Lebanon and Israel is at war with Hizballlah, then Israel is against all of Lebanon. Of course this is horseshit, but its how Israel operates.
Whatever happens, the margins are supposed to be thin and only a few parliamentary seats are in play and the makeup of the government won't be changing all that much here. It is the law in Lebanon that the President must be a Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shia. This is not going to change after June 7. Lebanon is 60/40 Muslim/Christian and this is not going to change immediately after June 7.*
*Actually, because the subject of sectarian demographics is so...ahhhh....explosive here, Lebanon hasn't had a census since 1932.
--------------
Perhaps the biggest changes will take place outside of Lebanon, in how the world views the country. If March 14 prevails, we will have more of the same. The US wants this, Egypt wants this, Saudi Arabia wants this, and the Gulf States want this. If March 8 wins (Hizballah) however, people might reconsider how they do business with Lebanon.
The US provides a lot of aid to Lebanon, mostly military. They have given about a billion dollars since 2006. The US is trying to arm and train the LAF so it can defend itself (presumably against Israel). The reason for this is that Hizballah says that they are the only force in Lebanon capable of keeping out Israel. This is true, and this is why they say that they need to retain their arms. If the US gets the LAF up in order, the thinkinng goes, then Hizballah won't have a reason to have its weapons and public opinion will force them to disarm and defer to the LAF.
But if Hizballah wins next week, Washington will have a choice to make. If they continue to give military aid, they are giving it to a Hizballah-led government. This will not sit well with the US congress, and certainly not with Israel. On the other hand, if the US cuts off Lebanon from military funding, then the LAF has no chance of becoming the primary defender of Lebanon, and Hizballah will continue to occupy that role.
And that's not all. Even if Washington decides to cut off Lebanon from military spending, they still have to decide whether or not to recognize the new government. When the people of Palestine elected a Hamas government a few years ago, the Bush administration was so upset that they rejected the government and cut Palestine off from all aid, which is huge because foreign aid is like 106% of Palestinian GDP. This move, at the behest of Israel, was incredibly impulsive and it broadcast to the Arab world that the US supports democracy only when the party they like is elected. If the Obama administration does the same in the event of a Hizballah win, then the US ideal of exporting democracy will suffer another huge blow, one it may never recover from.
Right now, the Obama administration is taking a new track. They are trying to reconcile with hostile governments instead of threatening them. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Obama is trying to make friends with Iran and Syria, and there is no reason not to do the same with Hizballah, if it is leading the government in Lebanon. Obama actually has a shot at making peace with a lot of old enemies. The biggest obstacle to this plan is Israel*
*And the world's weapons makers.
Sure, many continue to label Hizballah as a terrorist organization, but no more so than Iran and Syria.
First of all, Iran invented Hizballah and they continue to arm and fund the group. And Iran really gave the US a bunch of trouble in Iraq by dispatching Muqtada al-Sadr there to wage war. His militia was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American soldiers. In that case, the US decided to make nice with Iran, Iran recalled Sadr back to the city of Qom (the Shia vatican in Iran), and immediately the trouble from the Shia subsided in Iraq.
And let's not forget the US citizens being held by the Ayatollah in Iran after the revolution in 1979. They were held captive for 444 days and helped make Jimmy Carter look so weak and ineffective that he couldn't get re-elected.
And Syria is not that much better. At the beginning of the Iraq war, they were busing insurgents to the border and letting them cross so they could stir up trouble for the Americans. Also, Syria continues to harbor some unsavory characters against the will of the US. Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas, a group the US considers a terrorist organization, lives in Damascus under the protection of the Syrian intelligence. And until last year, Hizballah black ops leader and super terrorist Imad Mugniyah lived in Damascus (before he was killed with a car bomb). This is the guy that the US believes masterminded the bombings in Beirut in the 80s at the embassies and barracks. And now the US is trying to reconcile with Syria too.
The point is, if Hizballah wins in the election and is leading the new government, the US has a choice: they can either accept or reject the new government. And if they accept the new government and decided to make nice with Hizballah, there is precedent. They are doing it right now with Iran and Syria. If the US would reconcile with all three at once, the decision could pay dividends for years to come.
-------------
Of course, Israel doesn't want this. They want Hizballah to lose. They want Hizballah to make trouble. And they want Hizballah to attack them so that Israel can go back into Lebanon and finish the job, probably grabbing territory all the way to the Litani River. Israel wants an unstable Lebanon. Israel wants the US to be hostile towards Iran and Syria and Hizballah, because even if the US makes nice, all three will still hate Israel. So Israel doesn't want to be the odd man out.
In the last couple of months, the Lebanese Intelligence Service (actually proving to be quite capable) has discovered over thirty spies here in Lebanon spying for Israel. Thirty. Lebanon is a tiny country. This is the equivalent of the United States finding about 2250 al-Qeada spies in America. People would shit.
And in this week before the election, Israel decided to undertake some massive nation-wide military training exercise. They say that it had nothing to do wit the election here, but in this business, there are no coincidences.
The point is this: I have made a lot of friends here in Lebanon (most of whom don't give a shit about politics, as they are so sick of it) and when I think of what the greatest threat is to their safety, the conclusion has to be that it's Israel. Not the United States, not Iran, not France, and not Syria. Its Israel.
Who occupied Lebanon until 2000? Who bombed the crap out of Lebanon in 2006? Who blew up an oil refinery on the north shore that polluted the coast line there? Who dropped cluster bombs all throughout the south of Lebanon to make the land uninhabitable for the people there and which continues to kill and maim civilians every year? Not the US, not Iran, not France, and not Syria. The biggest threat to my friends' safety here in Lebanon comes from Israel.
For Hizballah's part, they have said they they want to form a unity government if they win, and have everyone participate. Hassan Nasrallah is no dummy and the more he makes it look like he is being peaceful and cooperative- and not immediately trying to introduce legislation to invoke Sharia law- the more likely Hizballah will be accepted by the international community. And the less ammunition Israel will have to proclaim a Hizballah-led government as a threat.
---------------
So whom do I want to win, you ask? Honestly, it doesn't matter in the least. I just want the people of Lebanon to be safe and secure like anyone else. I am a political scientist and I try to avoid taking sides. I think the Sunni could govern as well as the Shia, or the Maronites, or the Druze or even the Armenians. However, purely from an International Relations standpoint, I hope Hizballah wins, as this is the most interesting outcome. How will the US react? How will Iran react? How will Israel react? How will Lebanon react? And how will Hizballah react? All these questions are fascinating and it will be interesting to follow. But I would take Lebanon peaceful and boring over Lebanon violent and interesting. These people deserve peace.
---------------
Today is Wednesday and the election is Sunday. The warmer weather has arrived and the sun is out and strong everyday now. People are out and about, walking on the boardwalk along the Mediterranean. They are jogging, talking with their friends, playing with their kids, and eating ice cream. Its hard to imagine trouble starting in this sort of environment, but that is a possibility that you have to accept living here. I suppose this is in the back of everyone's mind, that days like this, peaceful and sunny, are meant to be spent with friends and family, and are to be treasured. Lebanon may be starting a new chapter of peace and prosperity, but today people aren't taking any chances, and they aren't taking anything for granted.
I'll probably just stay right here in my apartment. This part of town has fared well in past wars and in the event of trouble, I could probably still make it to the market and the bar. As long as I can scurry over to Captain's Cabin, I am sure it will be open. Also, I heard a rumor that if the US embassy evacuates you, they then send you a bill for about ten grand for the service. Unacceptable.
But I don't think there is gonna be trouble. Either Hizballah is gonna pick up enough seats in parliament for a majority, or they won't. Unless there is some underhandedness going on, people will likely respect the outcome. On the other hand, you never know what lurks in the hearts of men, and that goes double for this place.
--------------
Here is the backgrounder. On Valentines Day 2005, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 22 of his body guards were killed in an explosion in downtown Beirut. Everyone blamed Syria. Three weeks later, Hizballah called for a pro-Syrian demonstration and hundreds of thousands of people turned out in support. The very next week, on March 14th, over a million pro-Hariri/anti-Syria supporters took to the streets and demanded that Syria remove all the troops it was keeping in Lebanon.
As I have written before, Syria views Lebanon as part of its rightful territory. After Syria helped end the civil war in Lebanon, they left about 15,000 troops behind. This was good for Hizballah, as it allowed them to get its weapons and money from Iran unfettered (Syria lies between Lebanon and Iran). But for the rest of the Lebanon, it just sucked being occupied by the Syrians. And it sucked even more when they allegedly exploded their former Prime Minister. Hariri was leading the reconstruction of Lebanon after the civil war and he was widely respected in many circles, not just among the Sunni.
So Hariri was killed on Valentine's Day and people in Lebanon were pissed at Syria . Hizballah liked Syria, so they had a rally in their support on March 8 . A week later, the people who were pissed at Syria had their own rally on March 14. This is where the coalition names come from. March 14 coalition is made up of Sunnis and Christians, and March 8 is made up of Shia.
When people talk about Hizballah "winning", they are talking about the group picking up a few seats in parliament, which would give it a majority. It doesn't seem like much, but the group hasn't been in politics all that long. Historically, the Shia have occupied the lowest rungs of the socio-economic ladder, so the fact that their party has come so far in such a short time-they participated in their first election in 1994- is remarkable.
But not everyone is happy about it. In the 1980's Hizballah allegedly bombed the US embassy and the Marine barracks here in Beirut. Young men who knew and served with the Marines that were killed, if they are still in the service, are all colonels and generals by now. Although the Hizballah has changed significantly since that time in my opinion, the issue is still prickly in Washington.
Also, Israel hates Hizballah after Hizballah helped expel them from Lebanon in 2ooo and 2006. And just as Syria views Lebanon as part of its territory, Israel views part of southern Lebanon as Greater Israel. Israel has plans for Lebanon and Hizballah is the only thing keeping them out, as the Lebanese Army is comically inept*. So the prospect of a Hizballah-led government in Lebanon doesn't sit too well.
*In 2008, the Lebanese Armed Forces (aptly acronymed LAF) tried to dismantle Hizballah's sophisticated communications network. In one day, Hizballah stormed Beirut, took over the city, and disarmed the LAF. Hizballah gave Beirut back once the LAF promised not to try anything like that again.
Before, when Israel would clash with Hizballah, the damage would be limited to Hizballah controlled areas like Southern Lebanon and South Beirut, but if Hizballah was the government, it's conceivable that Israel could be bombing additional areas, the theory being that if Hizballah leads Lebanon and Israel is at war with Hizballlah, then Israel is against all of Lebanon. Of course this is horseshit, but its how Israel operates.
Whatever happens, the margins are supposed to be thin and only a few parliamentary seats are in play and the makeup of the government won't be changing all that much here. It is the law in Lebanon that the President must be a Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shia. This is not going to change after June 7. Lebanon is 60/40 Muslim/Christian and this is not going to change immediately after June 7.*
*Actually, because the subject of sectarian demographics is so...ahhhh....explosive here, Lebanon hasn't had a census since 1932.
--------------
Perhaps the biggest changes will take place outside of Lebanon, in how the world views the country. If March 14 prevails, we will have more of the same. The US wants this, Egypt wants this, Saudi Arabia wants this, and the Gulf States want this. If March 8 wins (Hizballah) however, people might reconsider how they do business with Lebanon.
The US provides a lot of aid to Lebanon, mostly military. They have given about a billion dollars since 2006. The US is trying to arm and train the LAF so it can defend itself (presumably against Israel). The reason for this is that Hizballah says that they are the only force in Lebanon capable of keeping out Israel. This is true, and this is why they say that they need to retain their arms. If the US gets the LAF up in order, the thinkinng goes, then Hizballah won't have a reason to have its weapons and public opinion will force them to disarm and defer to the LAF.
But if Hizballah wins next week, Washington will have a choice to make. If they continue to give military aid, they are giving it to a Hizballah-led government. This will not sit well with the US congress, and certainly not with Israel. On the other hand, if the US cuts off Lebanon from military funding, then the LAF has no chance of becoming the primary defender of Lebanon, and Hizballah will continue to occupy that role.
And that's not all. Even if Washington decides to cut off Lebanon from military spending, they still have to decide whether or not to recognize the new government. When the people of Palestine elected a Hamas government a few years ago, the Bush administration was so upset that they rejected the government and cut Palestine off from all aid, which is huge because foreign aid is like 106% of Palestinian GDP. This move, at the behest of Israel, was incredibly impulsive and it broadcast to the Arab world that the US supports democracy only when the party they like is elected. If the Obama administration does the same in the event of a Hizballah win, then the US ideal of exporting democracy will suffer another huge blow, one it may never recover from.
Right now, the Obama administration is taking a new track. They are trying to reconcile with hostile governments instead of threatening them. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Obama is trying to make friends with Iran and Syria, and there is no reason not to do the same with Hizballah, if it is leading the government in Lebanon. Obama actually has a shot at making peace with a lot of old enemies. The biggest obstacle to this plan is Israel*
*And the world's weapons makers.
Sure, many continue to label Hizballah as a terrorist organization, but no more so than Iran and Syria.
First of all, Iran invented Hizballah and they continue to arm and fund the group. And Iran really gave the US a bunch of trouble in Iraq by dispatching Muqtada al-Sadr there to wage war. His militia was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American soldiers. In that case, the US decided to make nice with Iran, Iran recalled Sadr back to the city of Qom (the Shia vatican in Iran), and immediately the trouble from the Shia subsided in Iraq.
And let's not forget the US citizens being held by the Ayatollah in Iran after the revolution in 1979. They were held captive for 444 days and helped make Jimmy Carter look so weak and ineffective that he couldn't get re-elected.
And Syria is not that much better. At the beginning of the Iraq war, they were busing insurgents to the border and letting them cross so they could stir up trouble for the Americans. Also, Syria continues to harbor some unsavory characters against the will of the US. Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas, a group the US considers a terrorist organization, lives in Damascus under the protection of the Syrian intelligence. And until last year, Hizballah black ops leader and super terrorist Imad Mugniyah lived in Damascus (before he was killed with a car bomb). This is the guy that the US believes masterminded the bombings in Beirut in the 80s at the embassies and barracks. And now the US is trying to reconcile with Syria too.
The point is, if Hizballah wins in the election and is leading the new government, the US has a choice: they can either accept or reject the new government. And if they accept the new government and decided to make nice with Hizballah, there is precedent. They are doing it right now with Iran and Syria. If the US would reconcile with all three at once, the decision could pay dividends for years to come.
-------------
Of course, Israel doesn't want this. They want Hizballah to lose. They want Hizballah to make trouble. And they want Hizballah to attack them so that Israel can go back into Lebanon and finish the job, probably grabbing territory all the way to the Litani River. Israel wants an unstable Lebanon. Israel wants the US to be hostile towards Iran and Syria and Hizballah, because even if the US makes nice, all three will still hate Israel. So Israel doesn't want to be the odd man out.
In the last couple of months, the Lebanese Intelligence Service (actually proving to be quite capable) has discovered over thirty spies here in Lebanon spying for Israel. Thirty. Lebanon is a tiny country. This is the equivalent of the United States finding about 2250 al-Qeada spies in America. People would shit.
And in this week before the election, Israel decided to undertake some massive nation-wide military training exercise. They say that it had nothing to do wit the election here, but in this business, there are no coincidences.
The point is this: I have made a lot of friends here in Lebanon (most of whom don't give a shit about politics, as they are so sick of it) and when I think of what the greatest threat is to their safety, the conclusion has to be that it's Israel. Not the United States, not Iran, not France, and not Syria. Its Israel.
Who occupied Lebanon until 2000? Who bombed the crap out of Lebanon in 2006? Who blew up an oil refinery on the north shore that polluted the coast line there? Who dropped cluster bombs all throughout the south of Lebanon to make the land uninhabitable for the people there and which continues to kill and maim civilians every year? Not the US, not Iran, not France, and not Syria. The biggest threat to my friends' safety here in Lebanon comes from Israel.
For Hizballah's part, they have said they they want to form a unity government if they win, and have everyone participate. Hassan Nasrallah is no dummy and the more he makes it look like he is being peaceful and cooperative- and not immediately trying to introduce legislation to invoke Sharia law- the more likely Hizballah will be accepted by the international community. And the less ammunition Israel will have to proclaim a Hizballah-led government as a threat.
---------------
So whom do I want to win, you ask? Honestly, it doesn't matter in the least. I just want the people of Lebanon to be safe and secure like anyone else. I am a political scientist and I try to avoid taking sides. I think the Sunni could govern as well as the Shia, or the Maronites, or the Druze or even the Armenians. However, purely from an International Relations standpoint, I hope Hizballah wins, as this is the most interesting outcome. How will the US react? How will Iran react? How will Israel react? How will Lebanon react? And how will Hizballah react? All these questions are fascinating and it will be interesting to follow. But I would take Lebanon peaceful and boring over Lebanon violent and interesting. These people deserve peace.
---------------
Today is Wednesday and the election is Sunday. The warmer weather has arrived and the sun is out and strong everyday now. People are out and about, walking on the boardwalk along the Mediterranean. They are jogging, talking with their friends, playing with their kids, and eating ice cream. Its hard to imagine trouble starting in this sort of environment, but that is a possibility that you have to accept living here. I suppose this is in the back of everyone's mind, that days like this, peaceful and sunny, are meant to be spent with friends and family, and are to be treasured. Lebanon may be starting a new chapter of peace and prosperity, but today people aren't taking any chances, and they aren't taking anything for granted.
