The Iranian Election

Questions

What the heck is going over there? What are they so angry about? And why isn’t America doing more to help them? These are questions I have been hearing lately and have been trying to piece together myself over the last two weeks. These aren’t simple questions to answer at the moment, due to the fact that Iranian politics are so secretive and access is so restricted. However there is some stuff we do know that clues us in to how things got to where they are today in Iran.

Most Americans gut reaction when they hear Iran being mentioned may be that this is one of the countries that hate us. This is not so far off the mark. Often during speeches and rallies, the old “death to America” chant is used to whip crowds into a frenzy. There are a great number of people, especially as you get outside Tehran, where suspicion and contempt for America runs high. Politicians are well aware of this and it’s easy to demonize an ambiguous enemy to score points with voters.

But their attitude toward the United States is not due to the fact that Iran is a “Muslin country” and the United States is not, or because we have “freedoms” and they don’t, or because “our women are equal to our men” and theirs are not. All of this may be true to a certain extent, but Iranians have far more concrete reasons to be angry and suspicious of the United States, as America was prominently involved in the two biggest events in modern history of Iran. And as is often the case with America, they both involve regime change.

The Shah

The United States relationship with Iran goes back about sixty years, to the end of WWII. At that time England was the big player there, having occupied Iran during the war in order to keep its massive oil fields out of the hands of the Nazis. The British had ousted the ruling shah (king) at the time and put in a more favorable government. However, shortly thereafter in 1952, that government elected a Prime Minister named Mossadeq that began to advocate loudly for nationalization of the oil companies. This would mean that the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now British Petroleum or BP) would no longer have control over the oil. Mossadeq was now officially out of favor with Great Britain.

In the past the British, they themselves having written the book on colonialism, would have handled such an event on their own. But since WWII ended they had been substantially weakened and they realized that they had to get their superpower-ally involved: the United States. The United States had cut its own deal with the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia insuring its oil supply for years to come, but Iran was England’s Saudi Arabia, and it was having trouble.

It was at this time that America decided its next biggest threat was Communism and the rise of Russia, which many in Washington felt had big plans for the Middle East. In order to secure America’s help in dealing with the “Iranian problem”, England started playing up the threat of communism in Iran, and presenting the scenario of Russia controlling one of the biggest oil fields in the Middle East. For American in the Cold War era, this turned out to be more than enough to get the involved. In 1953 the CIA sent some people over to handle things.

The two most prominent men were Kermit Roosevelt, grandson Teddy, and Dr Donald Wilber, a professor of Middle Eastern Architecture at Princeton University. Generally speaking, Wilber planned the plot and Roosevelt carried it out. With a suitcase full of cash, Roosevelt went out to garner support for by bribing policemen, army generals, religious leaders, and members of parliament, as their collective support would be critical to the plot’s success.

Then Roosevelt started about creating an atmosphere of chaos and lawlessness to give the impression that Mossadeq’s government had lost all control. Roosevelt did this by paying a mob of people to stir up trouble on the streets of Tehran, going around smashing windows, shouting pro-Mossedeq slogans, and beating up people. Roosevelt then went out and paid another mob to beat up the first mob, all while smashing windows and property, and this time they would be chanting pro-communist slogans. Once it appeared that the government had completely lost control of things, Wilbur and Roosevelt sent in their paid-off army generals to seize power and set up the Shah as the new leader.

Iran has a long history of living under kings, so when the Americans overthrew their government they installed the son of the last king to give the whole thing a veneer of legitimacy. For the next 26 years, though he was largely favorable to the United Kingdom and the United States, the shah ruled with an iron fist and was largely unpopular with his own people. Understandably not everyone was content to be ruled again by a king, and the king, as all leaders sitting on a shaky foundation with their people, did not take criticism well. Any public protest and unrest was put down in a brutal manner before it could get out of control, and the suppressed anger of the people was forced to simmer beneath the surface.

The people of Iran were unhappy with their new leader they knew they had America to thank. The Persians are no dummies, and they understood the hypocrisy of America overthrowing a democratically elected government only to install an oppressive king. Eventually the people of Iran had had enough and, in 1978, their anger began to boil over. People began marching in the streets and clashing openly with security officials. This went on for months as the world watched. All of a sudden a small clique, led by the Ayatollah Khomeini, emerged and seized power.

At first the people were overjoyed that the Shah was gone and they celebrated all over the country. But eventually they discovered what they were getting with the new regime. The Ayatollah turned out to be as ruthless as the shah, only now Iran was no longer a secular monarchy but an Islamic Republic. People now had to live under Islamic law, alcohol was prohibited, women were forced cover up, and all hint of western influence was aggressively stamped out.

Sure they did not want the shah to lead them, but this was hardly what they had in mind when they called for a change. The new “Islamic Republic of Iran” was also ruled with an iron fist (meet the new boss, same as the old boss) by the Ayatollah and their private guardian militia called the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC was composed of men who were true believers in the revolution, and that had got in on the ground floor of it all. Today in Iran, nearly every leadership position of any consequence is held by one of these men.

Helpless to stop it all, Washington DC was livid at what was happening. America was now stuck with a very hostile government controlling one of the world’s largest oil fields and natural gas reserves. By 1979, American had developed an insatiable appetite for petroleum. More than ever the link between oil and America’s national security was being recognized, especially in the wake of the 1973 OPEC embargo that brought America to a standstill and wreaked havoc on the US economy. For Washington this just would not do at all, and once again the powers that be decided something must be done about Iran.

This brings us to the second event in modern Iranian history that America was prominently involved in: Iran’s war with Iraq.

Iran Iraq War

Iran and Iraq are next-door-neighbors. At the time, Iraq was led by Saddam Hussein, the Tiger of the Tigris, who (at that time) was a friend of the United States. The attitude in Washington then was that Saddam may have been an evil dictator but at least he was our evil dictator, and he was decidedly not a communist.

The regime in Iran is powerful and stable today, but in 1979 things were still on shaky ground and it was unclear whether or not the revolution would take hold. Iran and Iraq, as neighboring countries often are, were historic rivals, especially with Iran being largely Shiite and Iraq being largely Sunni. So Saddam Hussein, being an ambitious man by nature, decided he would take a shot at the fledgling regime to see if he and his powerful army could topple it over and take charge there. If it all worked out, Saddam would control the world’s largest supply of oil and gas, which would make him one of the most powerful men in the world.

Washington was not sure it wanted a mad man like Saddam to have all that power, but nevertheless they were enthralled with real possibility of the Ayatollah being ousted by “one of their guys” (there is an infamous photo of Donald Rumsfeld in Iraq shaking hands with Saddam). When Iran invaded Iran in 1980, it was the start of a long and terrible war reminiscent of perhaps the most inhuman of all wars, WWI. Battles were fought in trenches, chemical weapons were used, and men were slaughtered a thousand at a time. It would be a crucible for the new regime.

When a country is at war, it may or may not forget its allies as time goes by, but it never forgets its attackers and those who aided them. So when America decided to help Saddam with military aid and chemical weapons (such as mustard gas), it burned into the Iranian consciousness the image of a meddling and malicious America which was now not just against the Ayatollah and his regime, but the entire Iranian people who were fighting and dying in this war.

Iran was faced with a truly existential threat and America had taken sides against them. Eventually the Iraqi onslaught was repelled by the brave Iranian fighters (the war wasn’t over until 1988), but the cost in human lives was staggering. Hundreds of thousands of Iranians had been killed. They Ayatollah’s strategy of sending wave after wave of “martyrs” to die at the front had worked (the martyr holds a special place in Shiite culture, as it’s the absolute most honorable way a man can die). The Ayatollah had taken charge of his country and delivered it successfully through one of its darkest hours. And now, not only did Iraq fail in toppling the Ayatollah, it succeeded in galvanizing the people behind him in the face of an invading army.

The regime might not have been able to take root so quickly if not for the Iran-Iraq War. And in the past three decades leading up to the end of it, America had overthrown the Iranian government, installed a dictator-king in its place, supported him for a quarter century, and then when the king was finally ousted, they supported an invading army in its attempt to take over the country by giving it military aid including chemical weapons. So one can see why they may be upset.

Effects of Interference

As you can see, America has had a profound effect on the development of Iran into what it is today. Just one example of this is in Iran’s relationship with Syria. The only nation Iran is close with is Syria, whose friendship arises out of Iran’s troubles with the United States. Syria supported the Ayatollah during the 1979 revolution and again during its war with Iraq. This support was critical to Iran in those first few years as it provided them with a much needed friend in the region, and Iran has not forgotten this. Many of those who fought in the war with Iraq, including President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, are in power today and realize the value of what Syria did for their fledgling nation.

Another byproduct of American interference in Iran is the formation of Hizballah in 1982. That year, Iran sent IRGC specialists to Lebanon (through Syria) to train Shia guerrillas to combat Israel. The stated purpose of this was to aid their disenfranchised Shia brothers in Lebanon (who were made up about a third of the country, but had no real power), but the move was also helpful for Iran in that gave the Americans something to think about when they were aiding Iraq. Hizballah would be under Iranian leadership when they would be attacking Israel, and this would give Iran a bargaining chip with the United States in the future. In the early 1980’s, Hizballah, Iran, and Syria became as thick as thieves, and the United States has been trying to untangle this alliance ever since.

After the success of Hizballah as an Iranian proxy it was certain this strategy would be used in the future, which is what happened after 9/11 when the US invaded Iraq. Iran is neighbored by Iraq on one side and Afghanistan on another, both of which were now occupied by the United States. All of a sudden Iran found itself surrounded by the very country that had caused it so many horrors in the past. As a result, a bulldog like Ahmedinejad was elected president and the rhetoric towards the west was set on “hostile”.

Somewhat predictably, Iran had Hizballah turn up the heat on Israel, but also it started organizing Shia insurgents in Iraq. For months, the wily and fearsome Shiite fighter Muqtada al-Sadr and his Sadr militia wreaked havoc in Iraq against the American forces there. The Bush Administration knew this, and originally they took a hard line to Iran, but eventually Washington realized that it had to make peace with Iran in order to make peace in Iraq, which was plagued with sectarian violence. Often the credit is given to the so-called troop surge for the calming down of things in Iraq, but Iran played a very large part of it as well. Tehran recalled Sadr and his militia leaders to Qom (the Shiite holy city in Iran) and the violence was soon quelled. In return, America was force to throw its support behind the Shia in the formation of the new government, which Iran would have incredible influence over.

It’s amazing that in 1982 the United States was actively supporting Iraq in its bid to take over Iran, and just 25 years later the United States was being forced to support Iran in its takeover of Iraq.

The Election

Iran might have another revolution on its hands, but this time Obama is doing the right thing by staying out of it. Some in Washington are advocating for the US to offer more support for the protestors, but this would only give President Ahmedinejad and Ayatollah Khameini fuel for the fire. If Obama opened his mouth now, it would give the regime an external enemy (America no less) and provide them with justification to violently crackdown on the protests. The protesters know this. And while they understand that America implicitly supports them in their revolt, they are not calling for American involvement. With America’s history of meddling in Iran, this is the only path.

So how did Iran get to where it is today, with enormous protest and unprecedented unrest? Well aside from what happened 1953 to 2009, basically the ruling regime cheated in the presidential election two weeks ago. This is not to say that Mousavi really won and Ahmedinejad really lost. Mousavi is thought of as “moderate reformer”, appealing mostly to educated urban and middle class voters. Ahmedinejad is a populist who appeals to poor and rural voters by giving them massive subsidies (like the dreadfully costly gasoline subsidy) and chastising decadence, corruption, and countries they think they don’t like, such as the United States and Israel. Iran’s voters are mostly made up of the poor and rural, and indeed one pre-election poll conducted did have Ahmedinejad winning with about 66% of the vote, which is actually matches up with what officials had said.

But there were problems. First, the election council is supposed to wait three days while the results are being certified to announce the winner. This time however, the Ahmedinejad was proclaimed the winner within hours of the polls closing. And the results showed that Ahmedinejad won evenly in rural areas and urban areas as like, which was odd because Mousavi was thought to have immense support at least in in Tehran. Finally, the officials had Mousavi losing in his home district, which may be possible in America, but if you know Middle Eastern politics this is highly unlikely. So the reported results were extremely questionable.

The protests started almost immediately. People were on the streets carrying signs and chanting pro-Mousavi slogans. But then things started to change. Never before had the people been given the freedom to openly protest, and now they were marching around and making their voices heard. Pretty soon, the protests morphed from disagreements with the election results to disagreements with the ruling regime. Thirty years of anger and oppression began to boil to the surface and after the protesters were given an inch, they took a mile. The regime was starting to lose control so they had to fight back, and when they fought back it only added more fuel to the protesters fire.

Their fury was taken to a much deeper level after a protester known around the world now only as Neda, was murdered by security forces and the video whipped around the globe on the internet. She has since become the people’s martyr, the very symbol of the protesters and everything they stand for. Sunday, the day after she was killed, the city of Tehran experienced an “eerie calm”, which seemed to be less a dying down in the protest as it was a regrouping of them. Monday, today, the protesters were back on the streets making their voices heard.

A House Divided

It’s not only the protesters that are exhibiting dismay with the regime. The unrest is only allowed to proceed because of a deeper rift in upper leadership of Iran and its complicated religious hierarchy. In the past, the regime would have cracked down long ago on the people and put a swift end to any disobedience, no matter how civil. However, Mousavi has some very powerful supporters in the upper echelons of the Iranian establishment. Former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani are among his backers, and these men are from extremely powerful families whose influence in both government and business runs deep.

This schism is far greater than people originally thought because not only are the people disenchanted with the government, but also men like Khatemi and Rafsanjani which represent the elite powers in Iran. So the protesters are allowed to continue because they have some very powerful supporters in the establishment and it’s unclear where this is all going (most likely nowhere anytime soon, as Khemeini and Ahmedinejad are just too poweful right now).

One theory is that the Ayatollah is really sick and that he is dying of cancer. The story goes that the Ayatollah and his supporters already have a successor planned, (Khemaini's son) but they really need the support of Ahmedinejad, who has enormous influence both with the rural poor and with the IRGC. Influence with the IRGC is especially important because they are really a network of generals, business leaders, intelligence officials, mayors, MPs, and civil servants that number in the hundreds of thousands. They have their own army, air force, spy network, businesses, and think tanks, and their support is critical. So they rigged the election for Ahmedinejad to win no matter what.

The people disagreed with the result and they started to protest. Normally they would have been put down immediately, but they were allowed to continue because a Mousavi has some powerful backers. Then once the people saw what they could get away with, the protests exploded and they have not been able to get control of it ever since.

This is where things are today. The elections have a lot to do with it, but it’s important to understand how we got here, as well as America’s part of it, because it explains why the protests have not been extinguished yet as well as why Obama is resisting all temptations to get involved. When it comes to American involvement in Iran, these days less is more.

Stateside

I'm in New York City.

Monday morning, the day after the election, I woke up at five-thirty AM to wash up, eat breakfast, and check to see who had won. Being a genius, I had a delicious chicken schwarma sitting in the fridge waiting for me to nuke it. I housed the sandwich as I poured over the results. Hizballah had lost and the pro-Western faction had won.

My roommate's buddy had crashed on couch. Last night, he said he would be going home to sleep, but the near empty bottle of Jack Daniels sitting on the coffee table told me all I needed to know. He was still awake, so I slapped him five and I headed downstairs to catch my cab.

As we drove to the airport the streets were deserted, save for a few weary-eyed soldiers who had been on duty all night. I made it to the airport with no hassle from the cab driver.

I was on my way to New York via Paris, and I got stuck with a seven hour layover that I somehow missed when I was originally booking my flight. However, some friends of mine just happened to be in Paris for the week, so I decided to make the best of a bad situation and meet them for lunch.

I had been to Paris a couple of years before, that time it was in March. I had a great time, but the weather was absolute shit and I was looking forward to a more summer-like atmosphere. No such luck. The weather was rainy and cold (whaaaa, I'm in Paris for the afternoon and the weather isn't perfect, whaaaaa). Whatever, but it's true.

Anyway, so I met my friends who were maybe mildly tipsy from a morning wine tasting. They weren't hungry, apparently they had filled up on a bunch of cheese somewhere, but I was. I got this wonderful ham, egg and cheese sandwich and a coke. When the bill came, the coke turned out to be 4.80 euros, about six bucks. Fucking French.

After lunch, I had a look around. By this time it had stopped raining and I checked out Notre Dame (always impressive) and the banks of the Sienne. Feeling fortunate to live this jet set life, but otherwise cold and soggy, I made my way back to Charles DeGaulle airport, as I wanted to leave plenty of time for myself.

A friend once said, "I've never caught a train that I didn't have to run to catch", but that just isn't me. If I am fifteen minutes early then I am on time, and if I am just on time, then I am late.

I made it back to the airport with plenty of time to spare. The dicks at passport control gave me guff because I look so different from my passport photo. I have lost some weight and I am now clean-shaven, but it's obviously me.

The has happened before. In Vietnam,the immigration guy called over his superior when I got there. The guy looked like a colonel or something. He was holding my passport and was very seriously saying over and over again, "this man fat, this man fat!". I don't know any Vietnamese, but I just maintained a looked that translated to, "look pal, it's me". After I didn't flinch or look nervous for a few seconds he relented. He gave me back my passport and sent me on my way.

It happened again at the Syrian border, and eventually they relented. And eventually these guys at the Paris airport relented. "Are you sure this is you?" they asked. "Are you sure this is me?" I responded. By now, I know the drill and I am comfortable in the situation. If I didn't get rejected or stuffed in jail in Syria or Vietnam for not looking like my passport photo, then certainly nothing was gonna happen here in France. My passport expires in three years anyway, so I can deal until then.

The flight to NYC was uneventful. I fell asleep immediately. Two hours into the flight, I woke up for dinner and a scotch on the rock (one ice cube), then I fell even more asleep. Six hours later I was landing in New York, greeted by the same shit weather as Paris. I should expect this from France, but not in my own country. It's June for God's sake. It's even worse coming from Beirut, where its 85 and sunny every damn day. So this is some fine welcome home weather, but what are you gonna do? The world doesn't revolve around me, and certainly neither does the weather.

It would have been nice to come back to warmth and sun, but the dank gloom better matches the discomforting uncertainty I face right now. I am almost thirty, and I find myself unemployed in this shitty economy. I am not sure what I am gonna do. Hopefully I can get a good job in Iraq. I like the Middle East and I could continue to improve my Arabic there. Also, the jobs are supposed to pay really well and the work would sure be interesting. At least I would have plenty of stuff to post for this blog of mine. But I am not sure. I will be looking for a job this summer and I will continue to write for this as long as I have anything remotely interesting to say. (Hell, even if I don't.)

Anyway, at passport control here in the States, they didn't even blink. He stamped it and I went on through to customs, where things were not so smooth. On my customs declaration card, I wrote that I was in Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. The lady who took the card asked me why I was there. "For fun", I said with a grin. "For three months? Go see that guy over there" she responded sternly.

"That guy over there" asked me all kinds of stuff. Half the time it sounded like he was generally interested in my answers, but the other half it just seemed like he was checking to see if I knew details of my trip. "Would you put your bag up here sir and open it up?" My bag was packed to the gills, but I didn't have a choice. "You've been searched before, is that correct sir?" Obviously it's correct, it's on your computer screen.

I was searched before, coming back from a five months in Southeast Asia and India. They gave me the third degree that day, but its hard to blame them. I had long hair, a three day beard, I was wearing ratty clothes and sun glasses- in the airport. I am pretty sure that if you wanted to look like a heroine smuggler for Halloween, you would wear this exact same thing.

But I wasn't smuggling anything that day, today, or any day, so I had nothing to worry about. Starting to get a little frustrated with the treatment I was getting in my own country, I looked at the customs official and said in a respectful but serious tone, "the government don't like it much when people get to travellin', huh?". He was caught off guard by this, and in response he mumbled something about how the government likes it just fine when people travel, and that it was just unusual was all. He told me to put my stuff back together and be on my way.

So I am in New York right now sitting in a friend's apartment. I had a hell of a time living in Beirut these last few months, and I know I am extremely lucky for the opportunity to do so. I am excited to see my family and friends again, but as always, its weird to be back.

Election Day Pics

Election Day

As you have no doubt already heard, the Lebanese parliamentary elections went off, for the most part, without a hitch. However, this was not a given in the days leading up to the election. In the past, political transitions did not come about peacefully or easily here, and many people thought this would be no exception.

When trouble has broken out in the past, people prefer to be with their own. Its safer that way, because if you are a Druze for example, you want to be in your village with your people and your guns in case you have to fight some other type of people. It's sad, but that is how things have gone down.

Many people in Beirut are not from this city, but are from the north or the south or the mountains originally, and I heard accounts of people going back there for the elections. You know, just in case.

Nevertheless, I decided to stay in Beirut for the election to monitor events there. I didn't really have a choice, as my village is in the suburbs of Boston, but I wouldn't have left anyway. Plus, I figured that if something happened, I might be able to get some good photographs.

This particular weekend, I had a buddy from grad school visiting from Kabul, Afghanistan where he runs a private security operation. We had putzed around Hamra and Ras Beirut for a couple days, but I told him that for the election, we would be marching all around. If he can survive all this time in Kabul, then Beirut on election day should be a walk in the park.

He reluctantly accepted the proposed activity, not because he was worried for his safety, but because it would involve a prolific amount of walking. This is something that just is not done where he lives, as he is driven around everywhere in air conditioned SUVs by people with guns. So the prospect of sustained and vigorous physical activity in the sun probably gave him butterflies in his stomach.

I woke up early and skipped the shower, as I was too excited and wanted to get out and about to see what was happening. It was too early to go meet my friend at his hotel, so I walked around to some close-by polling stations to see what I could see.

I figured security would be ratcheted up all over, but not really. Some places that were secure before now had few guards, and some places with few guards before now had a bunch. It looked like they just shifted guys around to more strategic areas instead if adding security personnel everywhere. This is probably more a reflection of Lebanese security resources than anything.

The first place I hit was a polling station a couple blocks from my house. I saw some troops and a flurry of activity and I went in to poke around, which led to the following exchange with one of the soldiers:

Me: Can I take some pictures here please?
Him: Okay, go ahead.
Me: Shukran. (Thanks)
Him (ten seconds later): Wait, do you have permission?
Me: Well, I was asking you for permission.
Him: Then no.

Fine, whatever. I didn't really mind because first of all soldiers and cops just don't like to have their pictures taken in Lebanon. It's off limits and it's understood. And also, we were in an extra stuffy area right next to the Prime Minister's apartment, where security is always tight. I figured that other areas would be more lax.

Walking down the street, I saw a young guy that has just voted, as I could tell from his purple thumb. I stopped and asked him if I could take a picture of his thumb and he said okay. I asked how the voting went and he said it was pretty smooth. He said that everyone in the country is officially registered to a different sect and it showed which one on your ID. People from the same sect vote in the same place, like Sunni in Beirut vote with Sunnis from Beirut, and so on. This keep the sects separate and minimizes the chance for confrontations.

By this time it was late enough in the morning to go get my friend. He came down and we headed out. The city was a relative ghost town. This was for three reasons. First, it was Sunday which is never a busy day. Second, many businesses were closed for the elections. And third, many people had retreated to their villages where they were registered to vote.

Hamra Street without people and cars is an eery sight. It's usually bustling with shoppers, traffic, and people in cafes. Today it was dead. The only crowds were near the polling stations. Things there were noisy and active, but otherwise peaceful and under control. This was the case everywhere we walked. From Hamra to downtown to Gemmayze to the sea and back to Hamra. Everywhere was the same: deserted streets except for the polling areas which were busy but orderly.

Along the Corniche (the seaside boardwalk), it was as if today were any other Sunday. People were sitting in the sun, spending time with their families, fishing, and swimming. Some of these people had the voter's purple thumb, but others just didn't care. In Lebanon, so much is made about politics that is natural for a part of the population to reject the process all together. I spoke with many who felt like this.

To the international community, this election was seen as a reflection on the ebb and flow of power. It was seen as a showdown between the America and the West vs. Hizballah and Iran. But few stopped to write about the issues that face the average Lebanese citizen, including corruption, pollution, traffic, education, and the distribution of wealth. The international press was not talking about these issues and it is unlikely any of these will be addressed by whoever wins. Two thirds of politics is bullshit on a good day, and Lebanon is no exception. So for some, Sunday was for swimming and eating ice cream by the sea, and not for getting caught up with your particular party or sect.

After the votes were all cast and the polls had closed, I went home to pack up my things, as my time in Beirut was coming to an end. I left the balcony door open to listen for any action, but there was none and it seems as though the government did a nice job in its conduction of these elections. The next day, I would be leaving Lebanon, but I was going with an optimism for the country that I hadn't felt in my entire three months there.

T-Minus

T-minus four days til the election. Its on everybody's mind here and Beirut is buzzing with questions. Who will win? Who do you want to win? March 8 or March 14? What will Hizballah do? Do you think there will be trouble? What will you do if there is trouble?

I'll probably just stay right here in my apartment. This part of town has fared well in past wars and in the event of trouble, I could probably still make it to the market and the bar. As long as I can scurry over to Captain's Cabin, I am sure it will be open. Also, I heard a rumor that if the US embassy evacuates you, they then send you a bill for about ten grand for the service. Unacceptable.

But I don't think there is gonna be trouble. Either Hizballah is gonna pick up enough seats in parliament for a majority, or they won't. Unless there is some underhandedness going on, people will likely respect the outcome. On the other hand, you never know what lurks in the hearts of men, and that goes double for this place.

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Here is the backgrounder. On Valentines Day 2005, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 22 of his body guards were killed in an explosion in downtown Beirut. Everyone blamed Syria. Three weeks later, Hizballah called for a pro-Syrian demonstration and hundreds of thousands of people turned out in support. The very next week, on March 14th, over a million pro-Hariri/anti-Syria supporters took to the streets and demanded that Syria remove all the troops it was keeping in Lebanon.

As I have written before, Syria views Lebanon as part of its rightful territory. After Syria helped end the civil war in Lebanon, they left about 15,000 troops behind. This was good for Hizballah, as it allowed them to get its weapons and money from Iran unfettered (Syria lies between Lebanon and Iran). But for the rest of the Lebanon, it just sucked being occupied by the Syrians. And it sucked even more when they allegedly exploded their former Prime Minister. Hariri was leading the reconstruction of Lebanon after the civil war and he was widely respected in many circles, not just among the Sunni.

So Hariri was killed on Valentine's Day and people in Lebanon were pissed at Syria . Hizballah liked Syria, so they had a rally in their support on March 8 . A week later, the people who were pissed at Syria had their own rally on March 14. This is where the coalition names come from. March 14 coalition is made up of Sunnis and Christians, and March 8 is made up of Shia.

When people talk about Hizballah "winning", they are talking about the group picking up a few seats in parliament, which would give it a majority. It doesn't seem like much, but the group hasn't been in politics all that long. Historically, the Shia have occupied the lowest rungs of the socio-economic ladder, so the fact that their party has come so far in such a short time-they participated in their first election in 1994- is remarkable.

But not everyone is happy about it. In the 1980's Hizballah allegedly bombed the US embassy and the Marine barracks here in Beirut. Young men who knew and served with the Marines that were killed, if they are still in the service, are all colonels and generals by now. Although the Hizballah has changed significantly since that time in my opinion, the issue is still prickly in Washington.

Also, Israel hates Hizballah after Hizballah helped expel them from Lebanon in 2ooo and 2006. And just as Syria views Lebanon as part of its territory, Israel views part of southern Lebanon as Greater Israel. Israel has plans for Lebanon and Hizballah is the only thing keeping them out, as the Lebanese Army is comically inept*. So the prospect of a Hizballah-led government in Lebanon doesn't sit too well.

*In 2008, the Lebanese Armed Forces (aptly acronymed LAF) tried to dismantle Hizballah's sophisticated communications network. In one day, Hizballah stormed Beirut, took over the city, and disarmed the LAF. Hizballah gave Beirut back once the LAF promised not to try anything like that again.

Before, when Israel would clash with Hizballah, the damage would be limited to Hizballah controlled areas like Southern Lebanon and South Beirut, but if Hizballah was the government, it's conceivable that Israel could be bombing additional areas, the theory being that if Hizballah leads Lebanon and Israel is at war with Hizballlah, then Israel is against all of Lebanon. Of course this is horseshit, but its how Israel operates.

Whatever happens, the margins are supposed to be thin and only a few parliamentary seats are in play and the makeup of the government won't be changing all that much here. It is the law in Lebanon that the President must be a Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shia. This is not going to change after June 7. Lebanon is 60/40 Muslim/Christian and this is not going to change immediately after June 7.*

*Actually, because the subject of sectarian demographics is so...ahhhh....explosive here, Lebanon hasn't had a census since 1932.

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Perhaps the biggest changes will take place outside of Lebanon, in how the world views the country. If March 14 prevails, we will have more of the same. The US wants this, Egypt wants this, Saudi Arabia wants this, and the Gulf States want this. If March 8 wins (Hizballah) however, people might reconsider how they do business with Lebanon.

The US provides a lot of aid to Lebanon, mostly military. They have given about a billion dollars since 2006. The US is trying to arm and train the LAF so it can defend itself (presumably against Israel). The reason for this is that Hizballah says that they are the only force in Lebanon capable of keeping out Israel. This is true, and this is why they say that they need to retain their arms. If the US gets the LAF up in order, the thinkinng goes, then Hizballah won't have a reason to have its weapons and public opinion will force them to disarm and defer to the LAF.

But if Hizballah wins next week, Washington will have a choice to make. If they continue to give military aid, they are giving it to a Hizballah-led government. This will not sit well with the US congress, and certainly not with Israel. On the other hand, if the US cuts off Lebanon from military funding, then the LAF has no chance of becoming the primary defender of Lebanon, and Hizballah will continue to occupy that role.

And that's not all. Even if Washington decides to cut off Lebanon from military spending, they still have to decide whether or not to recognize the new government. When the people of Palestine elected a Hamas government a few years ago, the Bush administration was so upset that they rejected the government and cut Palestine off from all aid, which is huge because foreign aid is like 106% of Palestinian GDP. This move, at the behest of Israel, was incredibly impulsive and it broadcast to the Arab world that the US supports democracy only when the party they like is elected. If the Obama administration does the same in the event of a Hizballah win, then the US ideal of exporting democracy will suffer another huge blow, one it may never recover from.

Right now, the Obama administration is taking a new track. They are trying to reconcile with hostile governments instead of threatening them. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Obama is trying to make friends with Iran and Syria, and there is no reason not to do the same with Hizballah, if it is leading the government in Lebanon. Obama actually has a shot at making peace with a lot of old enemies. The biggest obstacle to this plan is Israel*

*And the world's weapons makers.

Sure, many continue to label Hizballah as a terrorist organization, but no more so than Iran and Syria.

First of all, Iran invented Hizballah and they continue to arm and fund the group. And Iran really gave the US a bunch of trouble in Iraq by dispatching Muqtada al-Sadr there to wage war. His militia was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American soldiers. In that case, the US decided to make nice with Iran, Iran recalled Sadr back to the city of Qom (the Shia vatican in Iran), and immediately the trouble from the Shia subsided in Iraq.

And let's not forget the US citizens being held by the Ayatollah in Iran after the revolution in 1979. They were held captive for 444 days and helped make Jimmy Carter look so weak and ineffective that he couldn't get re-elected.

And Syria is not that much better. At the beginning of the Iraq war, they were busing insurgents to the border and letting them cross so they could stir up trouble for the Americans. Also, Syria continues to harbor some unsavory characters against the will of the US. Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas, a group the US considers a terrorist organization, lives in Damascus under the protection of the Syrian intelligence. And until last year, Hizballah black ops leader and super terrorist Imad Mugniyah lived in Damascus (before he was killed with a car bomb). This is the guy that the US believes masterminded the bombings in Beirut in the 80s at the embassies and barracks. And now the US is trying to reconcile with Syria too.

The point is, if Hizballah wins in the election and is leading the new government, the US has a choice: they can either accept or reject the new government. And if they accept the new government and decided to make nice with Hizballah, there is precedent. They are doing it right now with Iran and Syria. If the US would reconcile with all three at once, the decision could pay dividends for years to come.

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Of course, Israel doesn't want this. They want Hizballah to lose. They want Hizballah to make trouble. And they want Hizballah to attack them so that Israel can go back into Lebanon and finish the job, probably grabbing territory all the way to the Litani River. Israel wants an unstable Lebanon. Israel wants the US to be hostile towards Iran and Syria and Hizballah, because even if the US makes nice, all three will still hate Israel. So Israel doesn't want to be the odd man out.

In the last couple of months, the Lebanese Intelligence Service (actually proving to be quite capable) has discovered over thirty spies here in Lebanon spying for Israel. Thirty. Lebanon is a tiny country. This is the equivalent of the United States finding about 2250 al-Qeada spies in America. People would shit.

And in this week before the election, Israel decided to undertake some massive nation-wide military training exercise. They say that it had nothing to do wit the election here, but in this business, there are no coincidences.

The point is this: I have made a lot of friends here in Lebanon (most of whom don't give a shit about politics, as they are so sick of it) and when I think of what the greatest threat is to their safety, the conclusion has to be that it's Israel. Not the United States, not Iran, not France, and not Syria. Its Israel.

Who occupied Lebanon until 2000? Who bombed the crap out of Lebanon in 2006? Who blew up an oil refinery on the north shore that polluted the coast line there? Who dropped cluster bombs all throughout the south of Lebanon to make the land uninhabitable for the people there and which continues to kill and maim civilians every year? Not the US, not Iran, not France, and not Syria. The biggest threat to my friends' safety here in Lebanon comes from Israel.

For Hizballah's part, they have said they they want to form a unity government if they win, and have everyone participate. Hassan Nasrallah is no dummy and the more he makes it look like he is being peaceful and cooperative- and not immediately trying to introduce legislation to invoke Sharia law- the more likely Hizballah will be accepted by the international community. And the less ammunition Israel will have to proclaim a Hizballah-led government as a threat.

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So whom do I want to win, you ask? Honestly, it doesn't matter in the least. I just want the people of Lebanon to be safe and secure like anyone else. I am a political scientist and I try to avoid taking sides. I think the Sunni could govern as well as the Shia, or the Maronites, or the Druze or even the Armenians. However, purely from an International Relations standpoint, I hope Hizballah wins, as this is the most interesting outcome. How will the US react? How will Iran react? How will Israel react? How will Lebanon react? And how will Hizballah react? All these questions are fascinating and it will be interesting to follow. But I would take Lebanon peaceful and boring over Lebanon violent and interesting. These people deserve peace.

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Today is Wednesday and the election is Sunday. The warmer weather has arrived and the sun is out and strong everyday now. People are out and about, walking on the boardwalk along the Mediterranean. They are jogging, talking with their friends, playing with their kids, and eating ice cream. Its hard to imagine trouble starting in this sort of environment, but that is a possibility that you have to accept living here. I suppose this is in the back of everyone's mind, that days like this, peaceful and sunny, are meant to be spent with friends and family, and are to be treasured. Lebanon may be starting a new chapter of peace and prosperity, but today people aren't taking any chances, and they aren't taking anything for granted.

Druze Wedding

With wedding season coming up, I seems like a good time to share an experience at a wedding that I attended here in Lebanon.

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So my buddy says to me, "Do you have suit? You're going to a wedding."

The wedding was in the mountains, so we had to leave Beirut early in order to get there in time. I woke up about a half hour before I was supposed to be picked up. After a hasty shower, I murdered a bowl of Chocobumps cereal in about 45 seconds and made for elevator. We needed to move if we wanted to reach the village on time, but somehow I finagled a stop at Dunkin Donuts.

We began our ascent into the mountains of Lebanon to the village where the bride was from. She lives in Beirut, but the tradition is that you always go to the bride's family village to greet her. Here is the process: everyone from the bride's side goes to the brides village to get her and escort her to the groom's village, where all his people are waiting. Once the bride is delivered safely to the groom, everyone travels back to the bride's village together for a small ceremony, before the reception, which in this case was back in Beirut.

At the brides village, we were among the first ones to arrive. The place looked good, but was still under construction. Apparently, everyone from the village puts in as much money as possible, when possible, and they build the hall bit by bit. It looks about 78 percent complete at this point, but the location is money- on the side of a hill, overlooking the a valley. The view was incredible.

The bride and the groom are of a religion called "Druze". Most people outside of Lebanon don't really know about it, but the Druze believe in reincarnation, and consider themselves Muslims even though they don't necessarily practice the five pillars of Islam. They exist pretty much only in Lebanon and even here they make up only a small percentage of the population. They live mostly in the mountains and their societies, though friendly are quite closed. Druze men are expected to marry Druze women, and such was the case today.

After some refreshments (juice and sweets) we all embarked to the groom's village. A procession of about twenty cars or so wound its way through the hills of Lebanon. Once there, everyone walked the bride into the function hall, which had a pool and was also on the side of the mountain, providing another stunning view. Here, the hired traditional dancers danced up a storm. One of the guys' hand drums was so powerful it was setting off car alarms. We had some more sweets before we all headed back to the bride's village to do the same thing there. When we arrived there, one of old dudes from her village decided to take out his side arm and empty a clip into the air in celebration. My buddy Oussama said that in the more remote villages, it would have been an AK47.

Once things were wrapped up at the brides village, everybody split for an intermission from the festivities where people could regroup and freshen up before the reception. The women went home to change outfits. The old people who weren't comfortable with drinking and dancing just went home for the night.

Bride's village, groom's village, bride's village, Beirut. The distances are small on the map, but since we are driving around in the mountains, everything takes much longer. By the time we got back to Beirut, my buddy had already done about five hours of driving. We were pretty hungry and this point and we weren't sure what the dinner situation was going to be so we rolled to the mall to hit up the food court.

After a nice meal, we headed for the reception. It was being held at the Intercontinental Phoenician, one of the swankiest joints in Beirut. In the lobby of the grand ballroom, I saw servers walking around with trays full of glasses full of ginger ale. Ugh. Upon closer inspection, I discovered that this was not ginger ale at all, but tall glasses full of whiskey on the rocks. Up until this point, things had been kind of conservative and pious, but now, out of the villages and back in Beirut, things were loosening up. My mouth began to water.

Eventually, the bride and groom arrived and the real reception began. I walked into the ballroom and it felt like I was on a movie set. No, literally a movie set. Like with stage lighting, sound guys, and one of those video camera things that some guy has to sit in to operate. This main camera could maneuver over the dance floor getting all the best shots. I was amazed at the production value of all this. Throughout the night there were traditional dancers, smoke machines, camera crews, and even some pyrotechnics that had me making sure I knew where all the exits were. I'm pretty sure I saw a director arguing with some surly looking teamsters. It was like an Arab soap opera and the whole thing was really impressive.

There was a huge buffet dinner, so luckily I was starting to get hungry again. The meal was ridiculous and the drinks kept coming. But I was good, I drank a Red Bull and a glass of water between each glass of sweet, sweet medicine. In my opinion, I totally maintained and I was mildly impressed with myself. But I had to, I was there as an observer, and I only knew one person there, neither of which was the bride or groom. No, I had to explain that I was a friend of a neighbor of the bride. Needless to say I got some "what the f*** are you doing here"-looks, but on the whole, everyone was incredibly friendly and warm and I definitely felt welcomed.

At the end of the night, the cake was cut and people started to disperse. It was weird how different the whole second half of the day was from the first. The morning was so traditional and conservative and the night was the opposite, with tons of eating, drinking, and dancing. It wasn't quite as off the hook as some weddings in the States get, where towards the end of the night you can find people hooking up, making out, and throwing up (hey, its still the Middle East), but it was damn fun and I was impressed. The Druze really know how to throw a party.

And if you want to see what you missed, I am pretty sure the video of the wedding will be airing on Lebanese Bravo sometime this month.

Jordan Addendum

The Jordanians have a strong fondness for the late King Hussein, but his son King Abdullah, not so much. It was explained to me that "real Jordanians" only come from four places, one of which is Petra. The rest are Palestinians. When King Abdullah (then just a prince) was studying at University, he met the beautiful woman who was to be Queen Rania. She is very popular in the Muslim world, but not amongst "real Jordanians", which may be another way for saying Bedouins. It seems as though this group is not happy with Abdullah's choice of his queen, as she is Palestinian and some think that the Palestinians in Jordan are now getting special treatment at the expense of the Jordanians.

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The Bedouin feel more culturally closer to Saudi Arabia than to Lebanon and Syria.

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I bought a men's abiya as a gift for a family member. It is a traditional Bedouin robe, black in color and made of light cotton. I tried it on in the lobby of my hotel just for shits and giggles and I showed one of the managers, whose family is Bedouin. He said, "If my father see you wearing this, you would be shot by M16". I thought about joking that at least I would not be killed by an AK47, which is Russian made, but I kept it to myself. The manager then went on to explain that his father was a respected man in the tribe, some sort of a judge. If there was trouble, such as a dispute or "like some deaths or something like this", the police would be summoned to make a report, but then they would be sent off, leaving the resolution to the tribal judge, this man's father. He said the judge would put on a robe like this and travel to the scene where he would make a fair judgment that the people would have to live by and respect. This has two purposes: it maintains tribal stability and keeps the government out of tribal affairs.

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Waiting in the security line at the Amman airport, I heard the lady behind me singing softly. She was wearing a hijab and she was serious-faced and grandmotherly. I flashed her a smile and immediately her face changed and she returned it without saying anything. After I got through security and immigration, I headed towards the men's room before finding my gate. As I was walking I heard this tiny voice behind me asking me to stop. It was the lady from the line. Apparently, she has seen me take my watch off and now when she saw me I was not wearing it. She had deduced that I must have left it at security. I am not sure that I have ever been this sharp on my sharpest day. I thanked her profusely, telling her that the watch was very special to me as my parents had given it to me for my 17th birthday. I said that she must be a detective and she blushed. Amazed and pleased with the world, I went back to security and retrieved my watch.

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I was talking to the cab driver on the way to the airport. He said that he had been to America many times. He said he used to be a sailor on a Greek cargo ship. He spoke Greek, English, Spanish, Russian, and Italian. I asked him if he missed the sea and he said that he did very much. He asked me where I was from and he said that he had been to Boston many times. Then he confided that the first time he was in Boston was in the 1970's. He was a young man who came from a traditional family and he didn't know much about the world. When his ship docked in Boston harbor, he went ashore to have a walk around. During that time, Boston had a thriving but seedy "Red Light District". He said he was walking along the streets and everywhere were stores selling "naked women books and plastic penises". He said that someone grabbed him off the street and told him to put a quarter in this machine and have a look inside. Inside the machine was playing a movie which showed the man things he hadn't yet seen before. Its strange that the first time this guy- all the way from Jordan and not speaking a word of English at the time- saw a naked lady was in a porn store in Boston. I told him that Boston had changed greatly since then, and that this part of town was gone. He seemed wistful and disappointed at the news.

Aqaba

The car ride from Petra to Aqaba was uneventful. Once again, I didn't know where I was staying, but luckily the driver did. We came to the town of Aqaba and we didn't stop. We kept driving south and I knew that the Saudi Arabian border was coming up quick. As we cruised along the coast, I could see the green-blue water of the Red Sea. About eight miles before Saudi, we started to slow and pulled into the Bedouin Village Hotel. At first I was not sure about being so far from the town, but in the end it was nice to be away from all the hub-hub.

The hotel was very nice, with a pool area and tons of places to sit and relax. The staff was friendly, as were the three cats that lived on the grounds, which would meow and purr until you pet them. As a rule, I don't like cats- they're dicks- but a few good apples are slowly changing my opinion.

My room was posh, with AC and hot water shower. It also had satellite television, but I never switched it on. I rented flippers and a snorkel for five dinar, about $7. This seems a little steep, but I used them a lot over the next couple of days and I feel I definitely got my money's worth.

It was 11 am at that point, but I was bushed from getting up early and from the car ride down so I decided to snooze. After some lunch, I went for my first swim in the Red Sea. The beach was sparsely populated by tourists and Jordanian beach bums. I wrapped my sandals up in my towel and went for a dip. The water was a wonderful temperature, not as pee-warm as I thought it would be baking in the desert sun all morning.

I have snorkeled before in Thailand, but it was just after the tsunami so the coral was in rough shape and I didn't see so many fish. That said, I loved it and I enjoyed every second I spent under water. I spent a week on that island (Koh Lanta) and it was so late in the tourist season at that point that I hardly spoke to another individual the entire time. I ran every day up and down the beach, read, caught rays, meditated, swam and napped. By the end of the week I was ready to go, but I felt better than I ever had with a clarity of mind I had rarely enjoyed. So I have fond memories of snorkeling on an empty beach and really looked forward to it.

On my way down to the beach I saw a new hotel being built in front of mine. It was nearing completion and they had already installed a fish tank in the lobby which I could see contained one lone fish. To me, this was a malicious and cruel joke to be pulled on the poor fish. Sure, he doesn't know any better and probably has no clue that he is looking at Fish Eden right in front of him. But it isn't right. To me, this is like giving a mentally challenged person the wrong change at the ice cream stand. Sure, he doesn't know the difference, but that's not the point. You do. I thought about some elaborate aquatic prison break, but lucky for the hotel I have too much respect for the law.

I jumped in the water and after about 20 yards I could start to sea coral and fish. Immediately it blew away that beach in Thailand. There were so many hot and bright colors it was like swimming around in a pool of early 90s t-shirts. Countless florescent pinks, greens, purples, oranges, blues and yellows. I swam out further and further and the reef suddenly dropped off about 20 feet revealing an entire wall of coral and fish that put butterflies in my stomach. It was the combination of the coral and fish, along with the suddenly very deep water that could house any number of beasts and serpents. Luckily, I saw no such thing and my safety was never in jeopardy that I knew of.

It takes a little bit to get acclimated to the snorkel, as breathing out of a tube is not natural. The key is to take frequent breaks while swimming so you don't get short of breath and require too much air. The other trick is learning how to clear your snorkel of water without lifting your head from the water. This part is a little tricky since you must remain calm enough to breath in a little bit of water when a wave crests over the top of your snorkel. Its doesn't happen when the sea is calm, unless you go too deep. But being comfortable with this prevents the interruption of having to surface. Once you can do these two things, its highly enjoyable.

Swimming around for 40 minutes in the cool water is tiring. When your core temperature starts to dip and you get weak and a little dizzy, its the safe time to get out. So I came out and went back to the hotel to eat and take a nap. I brought my laptop and tried to catch up on my correspondence as best I could. I don't need many luxuries in life, but wireless internet is one of them. I write a lot for this website and another more professional one, so its essential for me to have access. And obviously it helps me keep in touch with my people, wherever they may be.

Back at the hotel, I noticed the two dozens or so retirees that were there when I checked in were unfortunately still there, and they had invaded the pool space. I don't have a problem with the elderly per se, and actually I am one of the few people that are genuinely interested in hearing them talk about what it was like “in their day”. Retirees can be as fun as anybody and often have some interesting stories to tell.

That said, it was unpleasant. With all of them sitting around the pool in their bathing suits, it felt like some sort of convalescence community and I had visions of my future trapped in a retirement village (nursing home) with a bunch of old bags and men whose testicles ulow and swing like the pendulum inside a grandfather clock. Someday, those will be my balls, but right now I am young and vital. I still have a lot of life to live and I didn't need the AARP-set cramping my style. Because no one likes being reminded of one's own mortality while on holiday.

The night was uneventful. I had some hummus and a fruit smoothie for dinner, killed the book I was reading by the pool (luckily, it was past 7:30, so the retirees were already fast asleep) and went to bed around midnight. The next day I went snorkeling at 11:30, 3:oo, and one last time at 5:30. I was enjoying myself immensely and wanted to get the most out of my time there, which I feel like I did. When I came back to the hotel after my first dip that morning and I was having lunch, I saw the elderlies departing all together and a slow trickle of backpackers was arriving. The atmosphere of the hotel was changing, and that night the place had a totally different vibe to it.

At dinner, I spoke to an older English couple who had recently finished working and decided to sell their house, buy a Land Rover, and drive it from England to South Africa (see, I told you old people had cool stories). Take a look at a map, its far. They didn't know how long it would take or what they would do once they got there, because they were all about the journey. They said they would either turn back to England, go on to Australia, or just live in South Africa. What a great adventure, I thought... and to be able to share it with your wife. I wish the same for myself.

In the book I had just finished (The Man Who was Thursday: a Nightmare, GK Chesterton, Penguin, 1908) the author wrote that "four is twice two, but two is not twice one...it is a thousand times one". I liked that.

So I really enjoyed my couple of nights in Aqaba. One thing I forgot to mention about the hotel was that you could see Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia all from the beach. I don't often think of those countries as being neighbors, but there they are.

Right now, I am on a two-story bus (with a stewardess!) cruising back up to Jordan to meet a colleague that lives in Palestine. Unless something writable happens, this will be my last post about Jordan. As I wrote to a friend, Jordan doesn't have a large number of attractions, but what it does have is absolutely amazing, and I am so happy to have spent a week here.

*I didn't take this photo because my camera isn't water proof. I got it from Flickr.

Petra Pics

Jordan

I have been in Jordan for the last four days and, in contrast to the Syrian expedition, everything has been running smoothly. One thing I have learned from the two trips is that crossing a border by air is much more preferable to crossing it by land. Upon arrival, people seem happier at airports and everything is more civilized. The dregs of the Earth use land borders (myself included) if you want to know the truth, and the people there are always dusty and irritable. Especially in the Middle East. And everyone knows that the land borders are shit, this is why it is reserved for the grumpiest and least helpful bureaucrats that the system could produce. Its the opposite at airports, where everything is "how do you do sir?" and such.

Jordan was no exception. The flight on Royal Jordanian Airlines (sadly not named "Air Jordan") was brief and pleasant. Amman is less than an hour from Beirut by plane, so the time in the air was quick, and made quicker by the attractive Jordanian stewardesses. (Whatever happened to American stewardesses? Alas, that's a rant for another time.) At the airport, I was greeted by my driver who was holding a piece of paper marked "Mr Patrick- USA". That about sums me up, I guess.

I got to my hotel and had tea with the owner to plan out my itinerary for the week. (He was extremely helpful and pleasant and later that night, after more than a few beers, he revealed that he once terrified a Japanese woman with the size of his penis. Me and this British guy listening to this were shocked by his boastful tale, but the owner had mentioned in passing and soon the shock was gone.) I spent the rest of the afternoon gathering supplies, like sandals and sun block.

That night at dinner, I met a Brit and two Americans. The Brit had been stranded in Amman for a couple of weeks due to some visa problems with Israel, where he lived (in Palestine). You could tell he was frustrated, but had a good sense of humor and his spirits were buoyed by the fact that his father and sister were coming for a visit the next day from London.

The two Americans were Mexican in descent, and they worked for a engineering firm in Tripoli, Libya. Every month they were given a paid week off and a plane ticket to anywhere in the world. Tripoli must be real shitty, I thought.

Sometimes when I find Americans living abroad, I am curious to see what sorts of things they miss from home, like food or whatnot. One thing I miss are burritos, which I eat on the regular and with a passion. I wanted to know if these two guys miss burritos too, but I couldn't for the life of me think about how to present the question without appearing like a total asshole. I dropped it.

After dinner, the four of us went out for a sheisa. We walked up to another part of town that seemed nicer than the area my hostel was in. The area is called "downtown", but don't let the name fool you. This is not the nice part of town. Its actually kind of an eyesore, and if we didn't walk up the hill to the other neighborhood, I would have thought that Amman was just another dusty Arab city. The other part was not Paris, but it still seemed a little happening, and that's all I need.

Once the sheishas were done, we headed back. The two Americans went to bed, but me and the Brit wanted a beer. We figured we would have it on the couch on the roof, where we could see the city, but the owner told us we should have it in the lobby, so we would not offend the neighbors by drinking in plain sight. In the lobby, he had put a sort of small thatched false wall up by the open door so people wouldn't walk by and see us drinking and be offended. Apparently, Jordan is more conservative than I thought. But the owner wasn't conservative. He seemed to have been drinking all afternoon (and possibly smoking weed) and the three of us stayed up late talking about God knows what. This is when he told his tale of Japanese horror that sounded more like some erotic Godzilla monster movie, with giant penises chasing terrified civilians through the streets of Tokyo, stepping on trains and bashing skyscrapers. There would most probably be some awful voice overs. Anyway, shortly thereafter, I decided that enough was enough and retired for the night. After all, I had to get up early the next day as I was going to Petra.

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I am better at describing human events than natural ones, so the bit about Petra is tough to convey. The driver drove us (me and the Americans) three hours south from Amman, right to the Petra gate, at the entrance to the park. We got our tickets and headed in.

This is the desert. It wasn't overly hot, maybe 90 or so, but the sun is very strong. It wasn't snowboarding in Lebanon, this time I knew my safety was at stake here. I lubed up with sun screen and put two huge bottles of water in my bag. I worn sun glasses. I covered my head. Picture above is the canyon you walk through to get to the main sites, but even before you get there, you must walk about a mile in the sun. Once you get to the canyon, its a truly welcoming sight. Not only is it amazingly beautiful, it also protects you from the sun.

The cliffs were formed not by water, but by earthquake, and as you walk along they get steeper and steeper. The daunting beauty of it slowly builds around you as you descend into Petra until you feel a humbling and overwhelming respect for the place. Finally, the canyon is so high on each side that you cannot see the top and it gives birth to you right on front of the Treasury, which you may remember from Indian Jones and the Last Crusade. "He chose...poorly." Even after the canyon, its an amazing sight. It was here that I realized I wished to carry on alone and I separated from the two Americans. This fantastic desert setting seemed like something best explored alone, especially by someone as paralyzingly introspective as myself. So off I went.

I was heading to this one area on a map I had, but my eye was caught by these unmarked stone steps that went off into the hills and without another thought I decided to see where they led to. What a fortunate impulse, because that hike was just incredible.

If I continue any longer with this, it will all turn into a blur of fantastics, amazings and incredibles. I would probably sprinkle in a few breathtakings and maybe a remarkable, but the point is this: I get bored very easily and this place held me captivated for two straight days. And I wish I was back there now. Just do a Google Image search for Petra and promise yourself that you will see it before you die. I promise you that its worth it. And its not just some sweet temples carved out of mountains, the entire landscape is mesmerizing.

After a second day of frolicking around in this desert paradise, I took one last look at the Treasury and headed back into the canyon. I had been climbing and exploring all day long in the desert heat and I couldn't wait to get back to the hostel, and have a shower, shave & nap. The trouble was that I couldn't remember the name of my hotel. I was sure I knew it at one point, but not in this condition. The sun had baked my brain and I was borderline delirious. I had been drinking plenty of water, but it was 5:30 pm and I hadn't had anything to eat since breakfast. Too embarrassed to hop in a cab and tell the man I had no idea where to go, I decided the best course of action was to walk the mile or so up hill to where the town was and hope to spot my hostel somewhere thereby. It worked but the cost was high, I had been sapped of all my strength and rationale. I did wake up once I was naked in the ice cold shower (not scaring any Japanese girls in that state, I reckon) and I managed to shave and have a wash. After the frigid rinse, I felt like a new man ready to face the world. Then I passed out.

I got some dinner and ventured out to find the ATM. My mission complete, I returned home to find some fellow backpackers playing this incredibly boring drinking game involving the naming of countries in alphabetical order. I was in no condition to play in my state and I was slightly pissed that someone managed to invent a boring drinking game. I stepped out to have a whiz and when I was finished, I scurried off to bed with nary a word to the others. Only one of the people there was not annoying me- this sensible Brit who talked like the Beatles- and the other three were locked in a Mexican standoff for the affections of this dopey Aussie red head. I was confident that I would absolutely "win" in this particular standoff- she just needed to be separated from the herd somehow- but the prize was not as appealing to me as a good night's sleep (sorry Aussie redhead) so off I went. After all, I had to wake up early to come to Aqaba.

Fireworks

Here is the executive summary of the oh-so complicated elections here: The biggest groups in Lebanon are the Catholic and Maronite Christians, and the Sunni and Shia Muslims. At the risk of gross over simplification, the election boils down to one side (the Shia and some Christians) backed by Iran and Syria, and one side (the Sunni and most Christians) backed by the West. So the stakes are high and Lebanon doesn't tend to breed people that take losing well. The group that could arguably make the biggest stink, Hizballah (Shia), looks like its going to have a good day June 7^th.

After the civil war ended here and Israel withdrew, Lebanon got to work rebuilding the country. The man leading the charge back to better days was Rafik Hariri, a Sunni and former Prime Minister. He was close with Saudi Arabia and talked often of reducing Syrian influence in Lebanon. In 2005 he was killed using a massive car bomb that also killed 22 of his body guards. Many think Syria was behind the hit, which may have been to teach Lebanon a lesson. For Syria, the lesson kind of blew up in their face. The people of Lebanon got pissed and threw the bums out, so to speak, and they have been trying to get back in ever since.

Right after the 2005 assassination, authorities arrested four generals and held them in connection with the murder. And they are believed to have been in cahoots with the Syrians. The investigation into Hariri's assassination is so controversial and politically complicated that it was decided that an international tribunal was needed to handle the case. Flash forward to this week, when the four generals were released by a Belgian judge due to lack of evidence. For an afternoon, the city went a little bananas. From my balcony I could hear fiery speeches and fireworks going off all over town.

The people belonging to the political groups that support Syria were very happy about the news. This includes Hizballah and Amal. Amal pretty much answers to Damascus, and even though Hizballah answers to Tehran, they still need to get their weapons from Iran, and they need to go through Syria (take a minute and look at a map) to get them. So they were all happy because one of the great hindrances to supporting Hizballah or Amal in the election is the dark cloud of their association with Hariri's alleged murderers. If you are a Lebanese, whether you supported Hariri or not, you never want another country assassinating your leaders, especially when he is playing such a big role in the reconstruction here. So for Hizballah and Amal, the news couldn't have come at a better time, especially if the release of the generals is seen as a referendum on Syria's implication in the case.

..............

I grew up around fireworks. Like most boys, I thought few things were more enjoyable than lighting a fuse on some cheaply made Chinese fireworks and watching them catch fire, fly around, or explode. The best ones did all three. In the summer, me and my dad and my brother would frequently purchase a healthy amount of firecrackers, Roman Candles, Saturn Missile Batteries, M60s, M80s, pin wheels, cakes, and mortars, and light them off where we would swear it was safe. Actually its amazing we still have all our appendages.

Anyway, so I am used to fireworks. And they are always being lit off here in Beirut. The only difference is that I pay attention more now. Whenever I hear them, I always take an extra second to make sure its not gunfire or real bombs. When an explosion is really loud, I'll go out to my balcony (eight floors up) and check things out. Eventually I got used to the reallyoud ones (where the hell are they getting this shit? Syria? New Hampshire?) and now I don't even check. That was until a couple of nights ago when there was an explosion so loud it shook my room. I was laying bed and I went out to the TV room to see what my roommate and his buddy thought, but they had gone and I was alone.

I wouldn't say I was scared, but I was definitely concerned. I even thought twice before I went out on the balcony. Once I got out there, I ran to the far end of it from where I can see the cops. A block away is the police station and I figure if anything big was going on, they would be scrambling around. So I went out to see what they were up to and I couldn't make out any immediate activity. Just then, another explosion went off from the same place. It felt more powerful than the first, but only because I was standing outside.

But that was it. No sirens, no police scrambling around, no chaos. It was business as usual. The Lebanese have the reputation of being cool cucumbers when it comes to this stuff, but they couldn't be this cool. I surmised that everything was okay and I went back in my room. It was only fireworks and nothing was awry, but just the same I canceled a trip I had planned for Dunkin Donuts that night for good measure.

I have no idea what they were using for fireworks (Symtex?), but I do know it was powerful and loud as hell. I felt the bass from it like a pimply teenager's car stereo sub-woofers with the bass turned up too high. I can't imagine what a real explosion would feel like. In 1983, a dump truck loaded with TNT drove into the Marine barracks that used to be here in Beirut and killed hundreds of Marines. A dump truck full of TNT. It must have been horrible and I hope this country never sees anything like that again, whether I'm here or not.

Promised Land

Some time ago, I was having coffee with a women whom I have known for a while. Her education was top notch, with a law degree from an Ivy League school. As is often the case with me, our conversation turned to politics and the Arab-Israeli conflict (I know- I must be a blast to hang out with. But I am, I swear). I am relatively well versed on the subject and I made an effort not to appear as a know-it-all. Eventually it became clear that she had chosen a side. She couldn't understand why the Palestinians acted like they did. After all, she said, the land of Israel was promised to the Israelis by the British.

To me, this is the equivalent of one man promising another man my car. Get out of my car, I would say. And the man would say that he would not, that this car was promised to him by someone, and not only that, but it was also promised to him by someone else 3000 years ago. It wasn't anyone's to promise, I would say, this is my car, it has been my car for many years and its the only one I've ever owned, so would you please get out. And the man would say that he wasn't going anywhere and that I would have to make him leave.

Of course, this argument is preposterous because the land didn't belong to the British and wasn't theirs to “promise” anyone. But this intelligent woman with a top notch education presented it nonetheless (as many people do), and she did it without a hint of logic or irony. If this is as far as our most educated citizens have come on the subject, forgive me if I am pessimistic about the outcome of this “Arab-Israeli issue.”

History

In the tail-end swill of the 1800's, an idea started taking hold in Europe that the Jews of the world should have their own country. Establishing a place for one particular religion to live and worship safely and freely is called Zionism. The Jews aren't the only Zionists, for example the Mormons. Its only natural for a persecuted group to want to band together in one place for strength and security. For European Zionist Jews at the end of the 19^th century, that place was Israel, which was called Palestine at the time.

During WWI, independence was promised to the Arabs in the Middle East in exchange for fighting against the Ottomans. It sucks when someone has to promise you your own car, but this was the exactly the case: the land was being promised to people who already lived there. It was controlled by the British. (You may remember the movie Lawrence of Arabia, which was about this very topic.)

However, shortly after the land was “promised” to the Arabs, it was “promised” to the Jews. In a document called the Balfour Declaration, Lord Balfour announced the need for the construction of a “Jewish national home.” As a professor of mine once said, if you have to pick a start of the conflict, it is this: the same land promised to two people. The British controlled Arabia, and they promised the entire region to the Arabs, then they went ahead and promised some it to the Jews.

So you have the beginning of what we see today. In the 1920's, Jews began arriving in “Israel” in ever growing numbers. There was a concerted effort among influential Jews to settle the area with Jews from around the world. People wanted to steer the Jewish refugees that were being mistreated at the time to “Israel” instead of America, because you need people to make a country.

When they got there, they began buying land. It must be remembered that much of the original land acquired by those early Jews was actually purchased and not stolen. But the land belonged to rich and influential families from places like Mecca and Damascus who didn't live in this area, so many of the tenant farmers there- the Palestinians- were displaced when the land was sold out from under them. There were growing tensions among the indigenous Arabs and the newly arriving Jews (not yet Israelis, as the Israeli state had not yet been established) and at one point, the British had to reduce the flow with quotas. This worked for a while, but when the quota expired, the troubles began anew.

Things started to deteriorate after WWII. In 1947, a vicious and bloody civil war broke out between the Jews, the Arabs, and the British. Many British soldiers were killed in the clashes and eventually the war became unpopular at home in England. One day in May, 1948, all hell broke loose: the British packed up and shipped out, the new “Israelis” declared independence, and the surrounding Arabs declared war. When the dust settled, the Israelis had defended their position and they got their own country. But it was Faustian bargain, and the Israelis have not had a day's peace since.

The Arabs attacked again and failed. For Israel the victories were real, but not absolute as they were not a deterrent to future Arab attacks. That all changed in 1967. Israel's neighbors were fighting mad and ready to team up and do away with the Israeli annoyance once and for all. But due to some fierce preparation and some good fortune, Israel got wind of the attack and struck preemptively, destroying first the Egyptian Air Force, and then the Syrian, and Jordanian. The victory was total and out of it the Israelis took Gaza from Egypt, the Golan Heights (including the Sea of Galilee, which is really a lake) from Syria, and the West Bank (including Jerusalem) from Jordan.

1967 changed everything. Israel dealt a humiliating defeat to its Arab neighbors. And as embarrassed as the Arabs were in defeat, the Israelis were ten times as elated in victory. Throughout history, the Jews had been pushed around and run out of everywhere they had lived, but here they were the tough guys . They took on three countries at once and beat them, all in under as week. Its hard to understate the effect of this. 1967 gave the Arabs an inferiority complex (at least militarily) and gave the Israelis their fierce warrior reputation- a complete turn around from their image of a “nation of shopkeepers”. And, just like the nerd who surprises the schoolyard by kicking three people's asses in a fight, Israel soon found itself under the affections of the prettiest girl in school: the United States of America.

The love affair between Israel and America began in earnest in 1967. Until then, it was just an interesting story to follow in the newspapers. Some Jews are starting their own country in the Holy Land, how nice. However will they do it surrounded by all those Arabs? I don't know, but the story shall be interesting to follow! Now all that was off. America had found their man in the Middle East, and an already formidable fighting force became the regions toughest. From then on, Israel has been very important to US foreign policy; something to be protected and showered with aid and lethal weapons in every Congressional budget. This was the height of the Cold War don't forget, and a staunch ally in this region was invaluable.

Since then, Egypt and Jordan have both signed peace with Israel. The decision to make peace was controversial and highly unpopular. Jordan's King Hussein was nearly assassinated because of it, and Egypt's President Anwar Sadat was assassinated because of it. The only holdout is Syria, because they want the Golan Heights and the Sea of Galilee back. They especially want the Sea back because it is their greatest source of fresh water.

Today

Israel's 1967 victory was impressive, but it was soon clear that more problems had been created as a result. From 1948 on, Israel had been acquiring Arab land by force. In many cases, the people fled figuring that they would eventually be allowed to return. Others stayed, but were now living in areas occupied by the Israeli's. Collectively, these people are known as the Palestinians. And since 1948, they have been the Arab ball and chain attached to Israel's ankle, the Arab ants at the Jew picnic, and the Arab rain on the Jew parade.

Because aside from “the Palestinian problem”, Israel has a good thing going. They live on the Mediterranean Sea, they have a booming tech industry, they have a very strong military, and they maintain a relatively high standard of living. If only they didn't pitch their tent under a bees nest and on top of an ant hill.

The Palestinian Problem

Part of the blame for the plight of the Palestinians can be given to the Arabs themselves, say about 6%. For during the years between 1948 and 1967, they had been offered many “fair” settlement packages (relative to today) that they could have taken. (As that same professor once said, the Arabs never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.) Another 13% lies with the PLO. As the supposed representative of the Palestinian cause, the PLO started trouble and wreaked havoc wherever they went. It is because of the PLO that the Palestinians are second class citizens in almost every country the live in. But the rest of the blame lies with Israel. One day they showed up there and started taking land by both hook & crook, using both carrot & stick. When you take land and displace people who had been prospering there for hundreds of years, you're going to create conflict.

Now, many Arab leaders cry on and on about the plight of the Palestinians, but let us be crystal clear about one thing: the Palestinians have no friends. The are only pawns in the geopolitical game, used as a rallying cry by Arab leaders when it suits their needs. But when it comes time to act, the Palestinians are invariably sold out by those leader to achieve their own agendas. Simply put, the Palestinians are on their own.

Take Lebanon for example, the vast majority of Palestinians here live in “the camps”. There are over 400, 000 of them. In a country of 4 million people, that's 10% of the population. The Palestinians here live in the poorest areas and are relegated to the all the worst jobs. There is an list of professions here that the Palestinians are allowed to work in, nearly all in manual labor. If the Lebanese and other governments allowed these people to integrate into society instead of giving them shitty jobs, shitty homes, and zero hope, they might not have the problems they have today. However, that's not possible here. The Palestinians are mostly Sunni and that would upset the delicate sectarian voter balance. Also, the PLO made one hell of a mess here in the 1980's, which people have not forgot.

The PLO

This is a recurring them for the “Palestinian Liberation Organization”. First the PLO (under one of history's worst rascals, Yasar Arafat) was expelled from Israel/Palestine to Jordan in the 1970's. They established a based there and soon tried to overthrow the government and assassinate the King. The King then committed a brutal crackdown against the PLO in what became known as “Black September” (which the Islamic extremists who killed the Israeli athletes during the 1972 Munich Olympics called themselves).

Then came Lebanon, which was in the middle of its own civil war. The civil war was bad enough, but with the PLO now using Lebanon as a base with which to attack Israel, they now had the Israeli Air Force bombs to contend with. Eventually the PLO was kicked out of Lebanon and banished to far away Tunisia. There, they were removed from the Israel-Palestinian equation (for a while).

These were the men who were supposed to be representing the Palestinian people, who were supposed to be their voice and protector in the world. All they did was cause trouble and make the Palestinians persona non grata wherever they went.

Picture a “Palestinian” in your head right now. Do you picture someone who works hard everyday supporting a family, who enjoys spending time with that family, and who enjoys smiling and laughing and joking with friends? Or do you picture and angry young man throwing stones and firebombs? Be honest. Everybody looks at the Palestinians as either a threat to their country or a drag on it, and the PLO is to blame for this. Palestinians are not allowed to have good jobs and they are not welcomed into society. If they had been welcomed from the beginning, the problem would be much less today. And if this is true in Jordan and Lebanon, its double true in the Palestinian Territories.

The people of occupied Gaza and the West Bank live hard lives. There is high unemployment there and many people have to find work in Israel. Everyday, they have to wake up before dawn if they want to make it through the Israeli checkpoints in time for work. This could mean leaving at 3am to get to work by 8. At the check points, they are subject to constant ridicule and humiliation by the Israeli military. They have to work all day in unskilled labor jobs. They have to return before the checkpoints close in the evening, in many cases returning home very late at night. Then they have to get up and do it all over again the next day, and the day after that, forever, with no hope.

The Palestinians were expelled from their lands, used and betrayed by their fellow Arabs, fucked over royally by their representatives in the PLO, and forced into a hopeless existence everywhere they live. These are human beings, how do you expect them to behave and react? How would you react?

Israel Does Not Want Peace

Israel is not a homogeneous society. It's thought of as a Jewish state, but there are a substantial amount of Arabs, about a quarter of the population, that live there. Even among the Jews, there are substantial divisions. Some Israelis are not religious, some are very religious. Some Israelis do not wish to see the state's territory increased, some fight ferociously for expansion. And some Israelis want to make peace with the Palestinians and some do not. Unfortunately, the voice of those that want peace is often drowned out by those who do not, and that is a problem that is getting worse every year.

Due to a demographic trend in Israel, the people least likely to pursue a peaceful and reasonable solution with the Palestinians are growing in number, while their moderate counterparts are declining. Moderate Israelis are either leaving the country for more peaceful places or staying and simply having less children than the Orthodox Jews and ultra-conservative settlers that believe in expansion. Israel is a democracy, whose policies are dictated by the will of the voters, and since the amount of “expansionist” Israelis is increasing, the policy of the government is following suit.

Settlements and solutions that were on the table even a few years ago, like Camp David and the so-called Road Map for Peace, are all but out of the question at this point. The window has closed for those plans and any solution involving them is obsolete. A tremendous amount of energy, bargaining and political will was put into those plans, but with this demographic shift, new plans must be started from scratch. And if there was a plan constructed today, that plan would also be obsolete in a few years. Due to this change going on in Israel, the window for any peace plan is closing, and closes faster on each successive plan. So when I say that Israel does not want peace, I am referring to the policies of the government as dictated by the voters.

Reservations

Many Israelis would recoil at the comparison of the treatment of the Palestinians to the treatment of the Native Americans by the "colonists" and "settlers" of the United States, but the similarities are clear. People from far away just started showing up one day. The people that lived there originally were displaced (or worse) and marginalized. The newcomers kept on expanding their territory over the years, and the indigenous population was forced onto “reservations” where they could live peacefully in squalor as long as they didn't make trouble for the new people.

In America, the term “settler” is a romantic one, that conjures up images of Davey Crockett, the frontier, and wagon trains moving across the new country. The American settlers were a people without a land moving to a land without people. But there were people there: the Native Americans. Three Hundred years later, those natives are all but gone. Some died, some integrated into American society, and some live quietly in out of the way and out of sight areas operated by the U.S. government. Today, Native American only prospers in the history books.

Is this the same fate that awaits the Palestinians? I am not sure, but that is the direction its going. America went to great lengths and committed unbelievable atrocities to get the Native Americans to the sorry state we find them in today. For example, to eradicate the Native American tribes on the Great Plains, nearly every single buffalo that lived there was slaughtered to deprive the tribes of their largest source of sustenance. In other places, blankets with small pox were given as gifts with the knowledge of the devastation it would cause.

This is comparable to the Gaza offensive last December, where the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) used phosphorus bombs to incinerate Palestinian civilians. In some cases, it was reported (by a couple of Norwegian doctors on the scene) that the IDF would shoot a regular shell from a tank to make a hole in a building and then would shoot in a phosphorus bomb. Apparently, this was more effective.

Its difficult to imagine something like that happening today, but nevertheless, we see history repeating itself. Every day, Israeli settlers keep expanding deeper and deeper into Palestinian areas. All of the peace plans thus far have included Israel returning to some past borders and staying there, but clearly the government has no intention of ever honoring such plans when it is constantly authorizing settlements to be built. One of the bedrock principles of the peace plans is having East Jerusalem as the new capital of Palestine once it becomes a state of its own. However, settlements have been going up continuously since 1967 when Israel took control of the Holy City.

Just recently, the plan was announced for a new settlement to be built in East Jerusalem, under the guise that the plan was approved many years ago, before the Road Map for Peace they say, which called for an end to such settlements. Occasionally, settlements go up illegally and the Israel government does nothing about it. And the settlers can be ferocious when the government does try to remove them. Israeli soldiers have been wounded trying to get settlers to vacate in some cases, but the settlers don't care. They will fight anyone who tries to remove them from their Promised Land.

Settlers currently have both East and West Jerusalem nearly surrounded. How is it possible for a settlement to be reached where East Jerusalem is the capital of Palestine and it's completely surrounded by Israeli settlers? Will it be politically possible to remove them when the people calling the shots in the government have to answer to a majority of voters who believe that the land belongs to them and it was promised to them by God Himself? As long as the Israeli government continues to allow settlements to be built, and does not use all of the substantial military force at its disposal to stop it, it is clear that they have not intention of sticking to any “peace plan”.

Prison

Another unflattering and obvious comparison for Israel is the one of Palestine as a prison. Gaza, for example, is 10% the size of Rhode Island with 50% more people. As previously mentioned, unemployment is very high, the standard of living very low, and the opportunity for people to improve their lives is almost non-existent. The Gaza border is lined with high walls, guard towers, and barbed wire. This is a prison.

Last year, some Palestinians broke down a part of the wall and spilled into Egypt. When asked for a comment by a journalist on the scene, a man who had come through the opening said that he just wanted to have a look around because he had never left Gaza in his whole life. He was 26 years old. This was a grown man, and he'd never left this tiny slice of hopeless hell smaller than Rhode Island. Let me tell you this, if you locked me in Rhode Island for 26 years, I would be firebombing everything that moved (sorry Rhode Island).

Two State Solution

Its amazing how this is the most prominent “solution” offered to this day. Gaza and the West Bank do not touch. When this inconvenient truth is brought up, people dismiss it saying oh, they'll just have to build a bridge or a tunnel or something. That is not a viable solution because Israel would never agree to having a bridge or tunnel coming through their territory, and as a result, a Palestinian state would never have true sovereignty if the people couldn't move freely within it's borders. Its like letting a man an woman marry and move in together, but not letting them ever be in the same room of the house at the same time.

A three state solution must be considered as an alternative. The Palestinians have sworn that they would never agree to this. Fatah, a remnant of the secular PLO is in control in the West Bank and Hamas, the Islamic political party, is in control in Gaza. It's certain that all hell would break loose if one cut a deal and left the other hanging. Hamas is very suspicious of Fatah over this, as Fatah is favored by America and the West and is clearly the party they would like to see leading the Palestinians. They don't like each other at all. But if the nature of the discussions shifted to seriously include a three state solution and everyone had enough time (not too much time) to get comfortable with it, and if a deal would only be made involving both Gaza and the West Bank, then this is probably the most viable solution to the problem right now.

At this point, Israel, Gaza and the West Bank are like three brother separated by their parents because of their constant fighting. Hamas and Fatah don't like each other, and they both hate Israel. What would a parent do in this situation? Make them shake hands and tell them to smarten up, that's what. And there's only one “parent” strong enough to make this work: America. The vocal extremist element aside, many Palestinians just want peace, but they will never accept losing their dignity in the process. The Palestinians have lost enough and suffered enough at the expense of Israel. So Israel must make the sacrifices in this case. As we have seen, this is all but impossible and the state of Israel has no intention of giving up what it has fought so hard for on its own. Israel will need to be coaxed. Or forced.

America is the only party with enough power to force a settlement. Even though Israel is a regional power with a strong military, they benefit greatly with America as their great protector. Israel knows this and its a large reason that they haven't seen a large scale attack by the other Arab states in a very long time. America is the most powerful country on Earth economically, technologically, culturally, and militarily. Any possible enemy of Israel must consider this before planning a possible attack. So with their first class military and their burly protector, they can afford project the image of a tough guy.

But like any school yard bully, their aggression only masks their insecurity. To many, Israel exists as certainly as the sun and the moon. But remember, its only existed for 61 years. To put that in perspective, Egypt, Syria and Iraq have been around (combined) for like 10,000 years. So to the Arabs, Israel is by no means a permanent certainty.

And Israel is not invincible to assault. With the right planning and coordination (never an Arab strong suit) the country could topple. First of all, the Israeli economy depends a large part on Palestinian labor, so a prolonged work stoppage could be very disruptive if it was air tight. And a work stoppage combined with a violent uprising, even more so.

Second, the IDF may be formidable in short battles, but Israel is the land of the citizen soldier that is “on leave eleven months of the year”. When Israel was at war in the past, the country's economy was put on hold as everyone had to contribute to the effort. It is still unclear how Israel would fare in a prolonged campaign. The Palestinian work stoppage alone would not be disruptive enough on its own, but if combined with a large-scale prolonged war requiring Israel's economy to shut down for a while, the effects could be devastating.

After Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, this is Israel's worst nightmare. But it will never see a large scale attack by its neighbors as long as its backed up by the USA. If that is taken away, the entire geopolitical calculus of the region would shift dramatically, and Israel knows this. When push comes to shove, they do what the United States says because they know how important their relationship is. Israel would have never gotten this far without American support. So they can be coerced.

With enough pressure from the States, I believe Israel would accept a solution, and an unfavorable one at that. It would just take enough a strong willed U.S. president that can't be influenced by the powerful Israeli lobby in the U.S.. Barack Obama's presidential campaign was largely funded by small individual donations so the distribution of power on the donor level has been watered down and he's not as beholden to large Jewish donations. (though Congress still is) If you throw in the effects of the Madoff scandal, it is debatable how much clout (money) the Israeli lobby possesses these days. So the window is open for a U.S. president to force Israel's hand to accept a deal, if he were so inclined.

Conclusion

The so-called Palestinian problem is one that is caused by the Israelis, exacerbated by the behavior of the PLO during its existence, and institutionalized be Israel's Arab neighbors' refusal to fully integrate the displaced Palestinians into their societies. As a result, we have a large group of people who are not welcome where they are, who have no hope and no way to a better life. The problem isn't going to go away on its own and the solutions that are being presented are outdated and completely inadequate due to the demographic shift towards conservative expansionism. Settlements need to be stopped by the Israeli government, using all the force necessary. The two state solution needs to be thrown out. And Israel needs to be forced by the United States to accept a generous (to the Palestinians) solution.

The Palestinians cannot be made to accept a solution that is perceived to be unfair- they will fight to the death against it- but the Israeli's can (for now). If it looks like America is making Israel suffer in the deal, I believe the Palestinian leadership will accept it. However, even the window for this solution is closing, so any action must be taken as soon as possible, most likely immediately after Obama is reelected, when he would be least vulnerable to the opinion's of others.

This demographic shift means everything to the peace process, because eventually the large majority of Israelis will be true believers ready to die for the “Promised Land”. And if we ever get to the point where both sides are willing to fight to the death in favor of opposing ideals, we will have then lost all hope for a solution that doesn't include the eradication of one side or another.